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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 32

New York Jets 20 – Cleveland Browns 37

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian pass short middle to 88-K.Yeboah to CLE 12 for 20 yards (0-G.Newsome; 6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.07 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP