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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 73

New York Jets 20 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-T.Siemian scrambles left end to NYJ 32 for 5 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.92 EP