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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 34 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 39-M.Haack punts 56 yards to NYJ 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 82-X.Gipson pushed ob at NYJ 23 for 10 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model