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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 44

New York Jets 17 – Cleveland Browns 34

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 5-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CLE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.44 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model