Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 34 – New York Jets 17

(8:01) 39-M.Haack punts 44 yards to NYJ 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.31 EP
47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 77, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model