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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to CLE 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model