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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 57

New York Jets 7 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(:08) 5-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model