Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:26) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to MIA 25, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on MIA-53-C.Goode, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model