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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 7-J.Sanders 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP