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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 13 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 0-B.Berrios to BAL 17 for 6 yards (10-A.Maulet).

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model