Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Miami Dolphins 13

(5:48) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model