Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 65

Miami Dolphins 13 – Baltimore Ravens 35

(10:45) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 16-T.Wallace to BAL 23 for 6 yards (41-C.Tindall).

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model