Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 13 – Baltimore Ravens 28

(:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.70 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -1.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model