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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.07 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model