Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(12:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model