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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 36

New York Giants 25 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(:35) 21-M.Crosby 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.47 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model