Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 84

Los Angeles Rams 26 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 42-E.Evans punts 40 yards to NYG 44, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-G.Olszewski ran ob at LA 48 for 8 yards (97-M.Hoecht). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.34 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 84, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model