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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 73

New York Giants 19 – Los Angeles Rams 26

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 6-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to LA 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.65 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model