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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 60

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to LA 21, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 81-A.Trammell.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model