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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 53
New York Giants 7 – Los Angeles Rams 7
What Actually Happened
(5:05) 2-T.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYG 47, and recovers at NYG 46.
The Three Options
GO
+1.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.89 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.78 EP
KICK
-1.55 EP
- 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT
-0.20 EP
- Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.20 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
