Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(2:24) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-31-N.Niemann.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
67% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model