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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 81

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 16-J.Scott punts 61 yards to DEN 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 1-Tr.Smith to DEN 34 for 14 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.72 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model