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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 16-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 2, worth +1.27 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP