Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 63 yards to LAC 3, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 12-D.Davis to LAC 15 for 12 yards (48-M.Fraboni; 41-D.Sanders). DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.45 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model