4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 54

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model