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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 75-Q.Bailey reported in as eligible. 33-J.Williams left guard to DEN 35 for 1 yard (52-K.Mack).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model