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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP