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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 2-E.McPherson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Robbins.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model