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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 25

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass deep middle to 83-T.Boyd to KC 45 for 23 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP