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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model