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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles right end to CIN 34 for 2 yards (94-S.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model