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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 10-B.Robbins punts 51 yards to KC -1, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 17-R.James ran ob at KC 9 for 10 yards (51-M.Bailey).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.89 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP