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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.84 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 9, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP