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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 76

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 10-B.Robbins punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-32-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 34, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model