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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model