4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 24

Chicago Bears 27 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.40 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model