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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 50

Chicago Bears 27 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 16-T.Gill punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model