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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 24

Chicago Bears 24 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 8-C.Santos 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.49 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP