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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 37

Chicago Bears 21 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-C.Santos 55 yard field goal is No Good, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill. 20-D.Alford at ATL -9 to CHI 13 for 96 yards (62-L.Patrick).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model