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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 6-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.94 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model