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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.41 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model