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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 1-J.Hurts left guard to ARI 15 for 1 yard (18-B.Ojulari).

The Three Options

GO +3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.99 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model