4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 10-B.Mann punts 61 yards to ARI 9, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 23 for 14 yards (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model