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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 10-B.Mann punts 56 yards to ARI 11, Center-45-R.Lovato. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 26 for 15 yards (45-R.Lovato).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP