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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 95

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to TEN 32, Center-41-C.Stoll. 12-M.Kinsey to TEN 43 for 11 yards (38-B.Russell).

The Three Options

GO -3.74 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth -0.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -3.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 53, worth -3.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model