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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 42

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 13-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-40-A.Kendall.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP