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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to TEN 13, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.64 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model