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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 5-J.Myers 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model