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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 85

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 13-T.Zentner punts 47 yards to SEA 38, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 85, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 43, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model