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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 88-D.Goedert to NYG 24 for 6 yards (29-X.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model